Oh no... it's alive!

In spite of its astounding commercial success, x86 is almost certainly the world's most-maligned instruction set architecture (ISA). Predicting the death of x86 used to be a favorite pastime of everyone from bearded mainframe geeks to Mac-using AOLpersons (especially the latter). But like various bad 80s fashions, x86 may be ugly, but it just keeps coming back.

These days, I don't field nearly the volume of "When do you think x86 will finally roll over and die?" questions that I used to. Indeed, it has been over nine months since I last faced this particular question, in a radio interview for a program called GeekSpeak—this has to be some kind of record for me. Perhaps the public is finally catching on to the fact that x86 isn't going anywhere. If so, then that's progress, but here's the next reality that x86's (technically justified) detractors will have to deal with: not only is x86 not going anywhere, but in 2008, it's going everywhere.

Mark my words: in 2008, you'll see x86 processors win the first few major battles in a multiyear war to displace the likes of ARM, PowerPC, and MIPS in the pockets, purses, and briefcases of everyone from corporate executives to mall-hopping Paris Hilton wannabes. 2008 will be the year of the must-have x86-based ultramobile PC (UMPC) and mobile Internet device (MID), and from there it's a straight march into a future iteration of the iPhone.

No, I'm not just mindlessly regurgitating Intel marketing materials; this prediction is a matter of physics and economics. The 45nm process node that Intel has brought online and will soon begin ramping up marks an important milestone in the evolution of the world's most commercially successful (and most perpetually "old and busted") instruction set architecture. This is the point at which the bulky and bloated x86 ISA elbows its way into the embedded space like a 250-pound man squeezing into coach class, carrying with it the billions of lines of legacy code that give it such powerful economic and technological inertia. With a 45nm x86 processor, you can boot decades' worth of Windows software without a recompile on a device that fits comfortably in the palm of your hand and boasts a four- to six-hour battery life. This makes 45nm the point at which things will get really, really interesting on the mobile front.

Of course, it has been possible for some time now to squeeze an x86-based PC into an ultramobile form factor, but it hasn't been cheap or attractive. Intel may yet find some success with its 90nm, Pentium M-derived "McCaslin" UMPC platform, which just recently launched, but the party won't really get started until McCaslin's 45nm successor, Menlow, arrives in 2008. Menlow and its successor, Moorestown, will fundamentally change the complex cost/power/thermals/compatibility equation that dictates what kind of hardware goes into a commercially viable pocket-sized widget.